Coal industry analysis meeting held in Shanghai to help solve key problems in the coal market

On April 2, the coal industry analysis meeting hosted by CUHK futures was held in Shanghai. Market participants exchanged and discussed key issues that should be paid attention to in this year's coal market.

Chen Xiaoyao, head of ferrous metal sector of CFU Futures Research Institute, said at the meeting that in 2018, the capacity of large coal mines began to release, and small coal mines continued to be eliminated. Assuming that the capacity of 138 million tons will be eliminated in the next three years according to the high standard elimination requirements of less than 300000 tons, and the pressure of capacity reduction in Hunan, Sichuan, Heilongjiang and Guizhou will increase. According to the development plan of the 13th five year plan, in principle, no new coal mines will be built in the eastern region, and the coal mines in the central and northeast regions will be strictly controlled. Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang are the key construction provinces and regions, and the new construction scale accounts for about 80% of the country's total. It is estimated that the actual effective production capacity of 194 million new coal mines will be about 130 million tons. According to the calculation of three years, the annual capacity release is about 40 million tons. Therefore, the focus of coal market in 2019 should be on how to reduce demand and how to increase supply.

In terms of demand, at present, there is infrastructure support in China, but the real estate market is relatively sluggish. Chen Xiaoyao said that from the economic data of January & mdash; February, in addition to the lagging real estate investment data, the growth rate of leading real estate sales, land acquisition area and other data has declined to a certain extent.

&"The market has fully expected the rebound of infrastructure investment, but it is doubtful whether the real estate industry can support the demand side in the later stage as last year. From the comparison of historical data, whenever the growth rate of real estate sales enters the negative range, industrial products will usher in a significant decline, so the demand side may face some pressure in the later period. &On the supply side, coal supply maintained a negative growth in March this year.

Looking forward to the coal market in April, Chen Xiaoyao believes that the pit mouth inventory starts to accumulate slowly, and the growth rate of coke supply may be restrained. It is expected that Shaanxi's resumption of production will be further improved, and the inventory of the centralized transportation station in Ordos area, Inner Mongolia, is likely to accumulate again.

&"The coking plant is in the break even line. Considering the recently released special inspection work plan of Shanxi Coking Industry and the environmental protection increase in Tangshan, Qian'an, Wu'an and other places during the two sessions, it is expected that the increase of coke production rate will be restrained in April with the implementation of inspection work under the condition of declining profit. &Said Chen Xiaoyao.

On the whole, Chen Xiaoyao believes that the contradiction between supply and demand of power coal, which is relatively concentrated in the early stage, is gradually alleviated with the promotion of mine mouth resumption. In coking coal, the inventory problem is still prominent. Although the coke output is expected to shrink under the influence of low profit and environmental protection, the port inventory has reached the extreme value, and the upstream inventory may further accumulate in the later stage.