Value added tax rate will be lowered from now on. Coal, steel, nonferrous metals and other industrie
Issuing time:2020-03-11 15:17
Tax reduction is not only a measure to cope with the downturn of economic growth, but also a great policy to benefit the people in fiscal and tax reform. ” Guo Xiaobei, a researcher at the Research Institute of Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with the Securities Daily yesterday that the main tone of last year's tax reduction and fee reduction was continued. The VAT adjustment further refined the tax reduction intensity of tax categories, with three grades changing into two grades. For the traditional manufacturing industries with a large proportion of VAT, including metal smelting, manufacturing, communication and computer, as well as the service industry, including wholesale and other banks All industries have greater advantages.
Due to the deferral and transmission effect of value-added tax, the middle and upper reaches enterprises still benefit. Guo Xiaobei analyzed that this mainly includes the upmarket manufacturing industry and high-tech enterprises, which are in line with the "made in China 2025 plan" and encourage investment growth in manufacturing, communication equipment, R & D and other aspects of upmarket to boost investment confidence. At the same time, the benefits of tax reduction have also increased the price reduction of express market, and with the decrease of oil price, domestic demand has been further increased.
The VAT cut also led to different drops in oil prices and electricity prices. Zhang Haibing believes that since oil prices and electricity prices are actually subject to local control, the fluctuation is very small. However, if the 3% tax reduction can be transferred to the downstream, the benefit effect will be obvious, and the trend of PPI and CPI will also be affected.
In response to the conduction effect of the VAT reduction on PPI and CPI, a state-owned bank researcher said in an interview with the Securities Daily yesterday that the VAT rate reduction is only the preliminary step of the detailed tax reduction measures. In the future, with the social security rate reduction launched in May, open the space for the decline of beneficiary industries and enterprises' industrial manufactured products and commodities, the superposition effect will be transmitted Lead to PPI and CPI to slow down their rising trend.
Fan Lei, a macro-economic researcher at Guohai Securities, said that after the implementation of the VAT reduction, the PPI and CPI of the next 12 months would be decreased periodically, but the monetary policy should not be affected. Value added tax is a kind of tax outside price. The income of tax reduction will benefit consumers by way of price reduction.
After tax reduction and enterprise price adjustment, PPI will have an initial obvious downward trend on a year-on-year basis, and will also partially transmit to CPI year-on-year increase. Fan Lei thinks, but 12 months later, PPI and CPI will have an initial and downward symmetrical rebound year on year. This initial downward price does not affect the price trend, nor reflect the change of output gap and supply-demand relationship, so monetary policy should not respond to this.